I created a placeholder page for my new project, www.policyanalysismarket.net. Here's the skinny:
In the summer of 2003, the DARPA-run Terrorism Information Awareness Office of the U.S. Government, directed by former Iran-Contra scandal figure John Poindexter, planned a "Policy Analysis Market", an online tool at www.policyanalysismarket.org that would allow registered users to trade contracts on the likekihood of certain events. PAM was subtitled, "A Market in the Future of the Middle East" and was interested in trading three types of contracts:
- Quarterly contracts based on data indices that track economic health, civil stability, military disposition, and U.S. economic & military involvement in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey
- Quarterly contracts that track global economic and conflict indicators
- Specific possible events (e.g., U.S. recognition of Palestine in the first quarter of 2005)
It was quickly branded "the terrorism futures market".
In fact, it was a brilliant idea disguised as a disgusting one.
This site seeks to bring the idea back.
Contact danielx at gmail if you are interested in building this prediction market.