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Policy Analysis Market

I created a placeholder page for my new project, www.policyanalysismarket.net. Here's the skinny:

In the summer of 2003, the DARPA-run Terrorism Information Awareness Office of the U.S. Government, directed by former Iran-Contra scandal figure John Poindexter, planned a "Policy Analysis Market", an online tool at www.policyanalysismarket.org that would allow registered users to trade contracts on the likekihood of certain events. PAM was subtitled, "A Market in the Future of the Middle East" and was interested in trading three types of contracts:

  • Quarterly contracts based on data indices that track economic health, civil stability, military disposition, and U.S. economic & military involvement in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey
  • Quarterly contracts that track global economic and conflict indicators
  • Specific possible events (e.g., U.S. recognition of Palestine in the first quarter of 2005)        

It was quickly branded "the terrorism futures market".

In fact, it was a brilliant idea disguised as a disgusting one.

This site seeks to bring the idea back.

Contact danielx at gmail if you are interested in building this prediction market.


Initial New York Times story on the project.

Cached mirror of the original site.

Links to all NYT references to the project.

Policy Analysis Market, originally uploaded by juggernautco.


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Daniel X. O'Neil: Chicago-based writer and internet developer. I am a co-founder of and the People Person for EveryBlock, a site that pulls together local news and public information. I run dozens of personal projects and websites for clients, and also own half of a poetry book company.


EveryBlock: A news feed for your block.
CTA Tweet: Unofficial Twitter tracker for the Chicago Transit Authority.
CityPayments: Database of all vendors, contracts, and payments that have been posted by the municipal government of the City of Chicago
Wesley Willis Art: Site dedicated to the fact that Wesley Willis was an artist.
Wide Right Turn: An incomplete look at the role of variation in a capitalist society.


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